Demand Planner

Everyone plans against a number, so get one built from cleaned history that tells you how wrong it was last month.

Your Demand Planner forecasts each item over the months ahead using a method that suits how that item actually sells. Steady sellers, seasonal lines, items that move in occasional lumps, and brand-new products are four different problems, and one method applied to all four is how a forecast quietly stops being useful.

It cleans the history first. A month when you were out of stock is not a month of low demand, and if that goes in unmarked the forecast learns to under-order forever. A single huge order from one customer is marked too, so it is not smeared across every future month as if it happens routinely.

It scores itself in public. Every month it publishes how far off the last forecast was and, more importantly, whether it was off in the same direction again. A forecast can be accurate on average and still run high every month — which you discover as a warehouse full of stock nobody ordered. When there is a persistent lean, it names the cause: a sales target treated as demand, a model nobody recalibrated, or overrides that always push one way.

It warns while it is still cheap. Weekly, it compares the month so far against the forecast and flags what is running hot or cold. Hot means a shortfall is coming, and it tells you the date stock runs out at the new rate. Cold means a pile is coming, and it says so while a small markdown would still clear it.

It hands the inventory seat the three numbers a reorder point is actually made of, and it says how much to trust each one.

It does not reorder, set reorder points, set prices, or decide to discontinue anything. It gives those decisions their numbers.